{"id":96261,"date":"2026-03-11T19:54:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/?p=96261"},"modified":"2026-03-11T20:20:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T12:20:30","slug":"iran-war-2026-the-global-finance-and-trading-fallout-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/iran-war-2026-the-global-finance-and-trading-fallout-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran War 2026: The Global Finance and Trading Fallout Explained"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"96261\" class=\"elementor elementor-96261\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-145c3875 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"145c3875\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4b70bbb8\" data-id=\"4b70bbb8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68609a3a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"68609a3a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">In our previous post \u2014<em><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/red-sea-crisis-2026-how-the-iran-war-is-choking-global-trade\/\">Red Sea Crisis 2026: How the Iran War Is Choking Global Trade<\/a><\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u2014 we examined how Operation Epic Fury and the resulting dual-chokepoint crisis are strangling global shipping lanes, sending freight rates through the ceiling and disrupting supply chains across every continent. If you haven&#8217;t read it yet, it is essential context for everything that follows.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">But the disruption does not end at the docks.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">While container ships divert around Africa and tankers sit stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, a parallel crisis is unfolding in the world&#8217;s financial markets \u2014 one that is arguably more structurally dangerous and far less understood.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">The Iran war has done something extraordinary: it has simultaneously broken down the traditional correlation between stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 the foundational logic that underpins how institutions, funds, and individual investors manage risk.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Every experienced trader, CFO, and portfolio manager knows the classic geopolitical crisis playbook: sell equities, buy bonds, buy gold, watch oil spike. It is a pattern that held through the Gulf Wars, the Arab Spring, and every major Middle East conflict of the past fifty years.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The Iran war of 2026 has torn that playbook in half.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Stocks, bonds, and gold have all declined simultaneously since February 28, 2026<\/span>, with only crude oil and the US dollar posting consistent gains.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Betting markets have raised the probability of a US recession in 2026 to 33%<\/span>, and\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">oil has climbed to its highest level since 2022, surging more than 40% year-to-date from its end-2025 level of approximately $60 per barrel.<\/span>\u00a0This post goes beyond shipping lanes and supply chains to analyze exactly what is happening \u2014 and why \u2014 in the markets that determine the cost of capital, the price of everything, and the trajectory of the global economy.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4aae503 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4aae503\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-35e297a\" data-id=\"35e297a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3cfddf3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video\" data-id=\"3cfddf3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/watch?v=XPJsG9gK2iE&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"video.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-video .elementor-widget-container{overflow:hidden;transform:translateZ(0)}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper{aspect-ratio:var(--video-aspect-ratio)}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper iframe,.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper video{height:100%;width:100%;display:flex;border:none;background-color:#000}@supports not (aspect-ratio:1\/1){.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper{position:relative;overflow:hidden;height:0;padding-bottom:calc(100% \/ var(--video-aspect-ratio))}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper iframe,.elementor-widget-video .elementor-wrapper video{position:absolute;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;left:0}}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-open-inline .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay{position:absolute;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;left:0;background-size:cover;background-position:50%}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay{cursor:pointer;text-align:center}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay:hover .elementor-custom-embed-play i{opacity:1}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay img{display:block;width:100%;aspect-ratio:var(--video-aspect-ratio);-o-object-fit:cover;object-fit:cover;-o-object-position:center center;object-position:center center}@supports not (aspect-ratio:1\/1){.elementor-widget-video .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay{position:relative;overflow:hidden;height:0;padding-bottom:calc(100% \/ var(--video-aspect-ratio))}.elementor-widget-video .elementor-custom-embed-image-overlay img{position:absolute;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;left:0}}.elementor-widget-video .e-hosted-video .elementor-video{-o-object-fit:cover;object-fit:cover}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-video,.e-con>.elementor-widget-video{width:var(--container-widget-width);--flex-grow:var(--container-widget-flex-grow)}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-video\"><\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-73911f5c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"73911f5c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-195b379e\" data-id=\"195b379e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1a4eea12 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1a4eea12\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Oil Markets: The Fastest Rally Since 1983<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2464ac6b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2464ac6b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-215315\" data-id=\"215315\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-49ff6839 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"49ff6839\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">From $60 to $91 in Ten Weeks \u2014 and the Physical Market Is Even Tighter<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6bf360f2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6bf360f2\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-32f485bb\" data-id=\"32f485bb\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-38aba4d9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"38aba4d9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The headline number understates the severity of the oil market repricing.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">US crude has settled just below $91 per barrel as of early March 2026, representing the largest single-week price increase recorded since 1983<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 a move that initially saw\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Brent crude futures jump approximately 7% in a single trading session<\/span>\u00a0on February 28, before continuing to climb through the following week.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">But the deeper story is in the\u00a0<strong>structure<\/strong>\u00a0of the oil market, not just the spot price.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Brent&#8217;s front-month contract has reached an unprecedented premium of approximately $36 per barrel above its six-month delivery contract<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 a condition known as extreme\u00a0<strong>backwardation<\/strong>. In plain terms, this means traders are paying an extraordinary premium for oil\u00a0<em>right <\/em><em>now<\/em>\u00a0because they are genuinely uncertain about whether supply will be available at all over the coming months. This is not speculation about future scarcity; it is the market screaming about present scarcity.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war boosts oil price, but oil major shares are stuck on the sidelines\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><a class=\"reset interactable cursor-pointer decoration-1 underline-offset-1 text-super hover:underline font-semibold\" href=\"https:\/\/www.perplexity.ai\/search\/i-want-to-write-a-blog-to-disc-8aCxFa17SI6BwFuOBHXdoA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">JP Morgan analysts have highlighted the critical shift: the market is no longer merely pricing in a geopolitical risk premium \u2014 it is now confronting actual operational disruptions, as refinery shutdowns, export limitations, and Hormuz transit restrictions begin to physically constrain crude processing and supply flows.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0That distinction matters enormously for how long the price spike persists: risk premiums evaporate quickly when tensions ease, but operational disruptions take months to normalize even after a ceasefire.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-475640bb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"475640bb\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-28dd43c\" data-id=\"28dd43c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-14e87472 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"14e87472\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Oil Market Price Surge Analysis\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTgsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvT2lsLU1hcmtldC1QcmljZS1TdXJnZS1BbmFseXNpcy1zY2FsZWQud2VicCJ9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96298\" alt=\"Oil Market Price Surge Analysis\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Oil-Market-Price-Surge-Analysis-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Oil Market Price Surge Analysis<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-88c2c4b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"88c2c4b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-20ebe02d\" data-id=\"20ebe02d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-570ac1c8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"570ac1c8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Why OPEC+ Cannot Ride to the Rescue<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ef70ae7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ef70ae7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-137c9cab\" data-id=\"137c9cab\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4b8f7ca1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4b8f7ca1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Every previous oil price spike of the past decade was eventually contained by the same mechanism: OPEC+ producers opening the taps to signal supply adequacy and cap the price rally. That safety valve is effectively disabled in the current crisis, for a reason that is as elegant as it is damning.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">OPEC+ did announce a larger-than-expected production increase in the first week of March. The market barely reacted.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">RBC Capital Markets&#8217; energy analyst Helima Croft stated the reason bluntly: &#8220;this is an entirely moot point&#8221; because of the lack of a sea passage to get those barrels to market.<\/span>\u00a0The Strait of Hormuz is the exit ramp for the vast majority of Gulf production. If the Strait remains closed or dangerous, extra barrels pumped in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or the UAE are effectively landlocked.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Iraq, specifically, faces the prospect of being forced to shut in production entirely if it cannot access export infrastructure through the Gulf.<\/span>\u00a0You cannot pump oil you cannot ship.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The only meaningful pipeline alternatives \u2014 Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline and the UAE&#8217;s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline \u2014 have a combined maximum capacity of approximately 5 million barrels per day, against Hormuz&#8217;s normal throughput of approximately 21 million b\/d. They cover less than a quarter of the gap.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6afac9d0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6afac9d0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-49cbc830\" data-id=\"49cbc830\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7dbd9b0c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7dbd9b0c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Global Energy Supply Bottleneck\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvR2xvYmFsLUVuZXJneS1TdXBwbHktQm90dGxlbmVjay1zY2FsZWQud2VicCJ9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96292\" alt=\"Global Energy Supply Bottleneck\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Energy-Supply-Bottleneck-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Global Energy Supply Bottleneck<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2f7b9a89 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2f7b9a89\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-46f1f6ba\" data-id=\"46f1f6ba\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-72025987 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"72025987\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Qatar LNG Aftershock: European Gas at Crisis Levels<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-73caec24 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"73caec24\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-73e36f2b\" data-id=\"73e36f2b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5edbc854 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5edbc854\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Crude oil&#8217;s surge has captured most of the headlines, but a parallel shock to global natural gas markets carries equally severe economic consequences.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Qatar has declared force majeure on its substantial LNG export contracts following Iranian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure<\/span>, with sources indicating it may take at least a month to restore production to pre-conflict levels. Qatar contributes approximately\u00a0<strong>20% of global LNG supply<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 the single largest national share of any exporting country.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war threatens prolonged impact on energy markets as oil prices ...\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The consequence for European gas markets has been immediate and severe.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">European natural gas spot prices have surged approximately 80% in a matter of days<\/span>, hitting industrial producers who rely on gas for energy-intensive manufacturing. For Europe \u2014 which spent 2022\u20132025 painstakingly rebuilding its LNG import infrastructure after the Russian gas cutoff \u2014 a Qatar supply disruption is a direct re-exposure to the exact energy insecurity policymakers believed was behind them.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war disrupts global trade, oil prices and supply chains\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-76f6babf elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"76f6babf\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-43405e32\" data-id=\"43405e32\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3009ccbc elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3009ccbc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Qatar LNG Aftershock Europe&#039;s Re-emerging Energy Crisis\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyODcsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvUWF0YXItTE5HLUFmdGVyc2hvY2stRXVyb3Blcy1SZS1lbWVyZ2luZy1FbmVyZ3ktQ3Jpc2lzLXNjYWxlZC53ZWJwIn0%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96287\" alt=\"Qatar LNG Aftershock Europe&#039;s Re-emerging Energy Crisis\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Qatar-LNG-Aftershock-Europes-Re-emerging-Energy-Crisis-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Qatar LNG Aftershock Europe's Re-emerging Energy Crisis<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7431ff44 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7431ff44\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-62746379\" data-id=\"62746379\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a36ac40 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5a36ac40\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Financial Markets: When Every Safe Haven Fails Simultaneously<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-590e189e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"590e189e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-22a9d610\" data-id=\"22a9d610\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a1889b6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a1889b6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Cross-Asset Breakdown \u2014 By the Numbers<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c6cb4d8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c6cb4d8\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-650b8473\" data-id=\"650b8473\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-38eacf50 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"38eacf50\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The most analytically important development since February 28 is not which assets have fallen \u2014 it is that they have all fallen\u00a0<em>together<\/em>. This simultaneous decline across traditional safe-haven and risk assets has no clear modern precedent outside of the early days of the 2008 financial crisis:<\/p><div class=\"group relative my-[1em]\"><div class=\"sticky top-0 z-10 h-0\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><div class=\"w-full overflow-hidden bg-raised border-x md:max-w-[90vw] dark:shadow-lg border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest\"><table class=\"[&amp;_tr:last-child_td]:border-b-0 my-0 w-full table-auto border-separate border-spacing-0 text-sm font-sans rounded-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:first-child]:rounded-bl-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:last-child]:rounded-br-lg\" style=\"height: 43px;\" width=\"288\"><thead class=\"\"><tr><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Asset Class<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Direction Since Feb 28<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Key Data Point<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class=\"w-full overflow-auto scrollbar-subtle rounded-lg border md:max-w-[90vw] border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-raised\"><table class=\"[&amp;_tr:last-child_td]:border-b-0 my-0 w-full table-auto border-separate border-spacing-0 text-sm font-sans rounded-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:first-child]:rounded-bl-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:last-child]:rounded-br-lg\"><thead class=\"\"><tr><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Asset Class<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Direction Since Feb 28<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Key Data Point<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Brent crude<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udd34\u00a0<strong>Up sharply<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">+40% YTD; +30% in first week\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">WTI crude<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udd34\u00a0<strong>Up sharply<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Above $80\/barrel; +8% single-week gain\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">US Dollar (DXY)<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udd34\u00a0<strong>Up<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Appreciating on safe-haven demand\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors Should Watch The Iran Conflict, $91 Oil And ... - Forbes\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">S&amp;P 500<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0<strong>Down<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">-0.6% on March 5 alone; negative YTD\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Dow Jones<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0<strong>Down<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">-400+ points on March 2\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Asian equities<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0<strong>Down sharply<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">South Korea &amp; Thailand circuit breakers triggered at -8%\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Stock markets and oil prices still volatile over fears Iran war ... - BBC\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">10-year US Treasury yield<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0<strong>Rising<\/strong>\u00a0(prices falling)<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">4.13% vs 3.93% pre-conflict \u2014 equivalent to one full Fed rate hike\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Gold<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe2\u00a0<strong>Down<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Falling despite full-scale geopolitical crisis\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors make a dash for cash as Iran crisis upends markets | Reuters\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Oil major equities<\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">\ud83d\udfe1\u00a0<strong>Broadly flat<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Energy ETF +~2% despite 40% crude spike\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war boosts oil price, but oil major shares are stuck on the sidelines\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"sticky z-10 h-0\"><div class=\"bg-base border-subtlest shadow-subtle pointer-coarse:opacity-100 keyboard:opacity-100 right-xs absolute bottom-xs flex rounded-md border opacity-0 transition-opacity group-hover:opacity-100 [&amp;&gt;*:not(:first-child)]:border-subtlest [&amp;&gt;*:not(:first-child)]:border-l\"><div>\u00a0<\/div><div class=\"flex transition-opacity duration-300 [&amp;_button]:hover:bg-transparent\">This table tells a deeply unusual story. In a normal geopolitical shock, equities fall while bonds and gold rise \u2014 portfolio diversification works as designed, and investors can rotate to safety. Here, there is no clean rotation available. Cash and crude are the only unambiguous winners, and most investors and institutions are structurally underweight both.<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ea54000 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ea54000\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-abd1261\" data-id=\"abd1261\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-35c7cfd elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"35c7cfd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Gold Paradox: Why the Ultimate Safe Haven Is Falling<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3929fb09 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3929fb09\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-29ef72ed\" data-id=\"29ef72ed\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3aed5be4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3aed5be4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Gold&#8217;s underperformance demands its own analysis, because it runs so contrary to historical precedent. Gold surged during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 2019\u20132020 US-Iran tensions, and effectively every major geopolitical shock in living memory. Its current decline is not a minor anomaly \u2014 it is a significant signal about what kind of crisis this actually is.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The explanation lies in the\u00a0<strong>bond market<\/strong>.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 3.93% to 4.13% since the conflict began<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 the equivalent of a full Federal Reserve interest rate hike compressed into days. Rising yields increase the\u00a0<strong>opportunity cost of holding gold<\/strong>, which pays no income. When bonds offer higher yields, gold becomes relatively less attractive as a store of value. Investors are choosing to hold cash or short-duration bonds rather than gold, because this crisis is being priced as an\u00a0<strong>inflation shock<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 not a deflation shock or a financial system stress event, which are the scenarios where gold historically performs best.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">In other words, gold is not failing as a safe haven because it has lost its value. It is falling because the market has correctly identified that the primary risk here is\u00a0<strong>sustained inflation driven by an energy supply shock<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 and cash and oil are better hedges for that specific scenario than gold.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a3f9bf3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a3f9bf3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8b5fc4a\" data-id=\"8b5fc4a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ae26222 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ae26222\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"The Gold Paradox Analysis Why the Ultimate Safe Haven is Falling\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyODgsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvVGhlLUdvbGQtUGFyYWRveC1BbmFseXNpcy1XaHktdGhlLVVsdGltYXRlLVNhZmUtSGF2ZW4taXMtRmFsbGluZy1zY2FsZWQud2VicCJ9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96288\" alt=\"The Gold Paradox Analysis Why the Ultimate Safe Haven is Falling\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/The-Gold-Paradox-Analysis-Why-the-Ultimate-Safe-Haven-is-Falling-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">The Gold Paradox Analysis Why the Ultimate Safe Haven is Falling<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ef6331e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ef6331e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a465eb6\" data-id=\"a465eb6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0db00b0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0db00b0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Why Oil Stocks Are Not Rallying With Oil Prices<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-153be00c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"153be00c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3b83eb6\" data-id=\"3b83eb6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-40dcd8d6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"40dcd8d6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Another counterintuitive dynamic worth examining is the near-complete disconnection between crude oil prices (up 40%) and energy company equities (up approximately 2%).\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Equity markets are not simply multiplying the oil price move \u2014 they are applying significant discount factors that reflect genuine uncertainty about whether the oil price spike translates into durable profitability.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Equity traders are weighing four specific negative factors against the revenue tailwind of higher crude:<\/p><ol class=\"marker:text-quiet list-decimal\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Volume versus price<\/strong>: Higher prices are partly offset by lower volumes \u2014 Iranian refinery and terminal damage has knocked production capacity offline, so some of the region&#8217;s oil is not being sold at any price<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Infrastructure and personnel risk<\/strong>: Oil majors with Gulf exposure face asset safety risks that are not yet fully quantifiable; no company will accelerate capital investment in a war zone<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Duration skepticism<\/strong>: If the conflict resolves in four to six weeks, the oil spike reverses sharply \u2014 and companies that lock in operating cost assumptions at elevated levels face a painful adjustment<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Demand destruction ceiling<\/strong>:\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Sustained oil prices above $90\u2013100 per barrel historically trigger demand destruction in price-sensitive emerging markets<\/span>, capping the theoretical upside and potentially creating an inventory glut if supply resumes suddenly<\/p><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Morgan Stanley analysts advise investors to note that markets have historically posted gains during wartime \u2014 including double-digit increases during both Gulf Wars \u2014 but caution that this conflict&#8217;s duration and the simultaneous Hormuz closure make it structurally different from those precedents.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0c50250 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0c50250\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-86b5af6\" data-id=\"86b5af6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e15ef1d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e15ef1d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Analyzing The Energy Equity Paradox\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyODksInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvQW5hbHl6aW5nLVRoZS1FbmVyZ3ktRXF1aXR5LVBhcmFkb3gtc2NhbGVkLndlYnAifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96289\" alt=\"Analyzing The Energy Equity Paradox\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Analyzing-The-Energy-Equity-Paradox-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Analyzing The Energy Equity Paradox<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-090bf3a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"090bf3a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-62e0c7d\" data-id=\"62e0c7d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6f5dc79 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6f5dc79\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Bond Markets and the Inflation Signal<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-69e1248d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"69e1248d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2c21ea02\" data-id=\"2c21ea02\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-641df6a0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"641df6a0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">US Treasury bonds are supposed to be the world&#8217;s premier safe-haven asset. In every major crisis of the past quarter century, investors have sold equities and bought Treasuries, pushing yields down and prices up. The fact that yields are\u00a0<em>rising<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 bond prices falling \u2014 during a full-scale geopolitical crisis is one of the most important signals in current markets, and it deserves far more attention than it is receiving in mainstream financial coverage.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">The 10-year Treasury yield climbing from 3.93% to 4.13% in days is the bond market&#8217;s unambiguous verdict: this is an inflationary shock, not a deflationary one.<\/span>\u00a0Bond investors are not buying Treasuries for safety because they are more worried about inflation eroding the real value of their fixed-income returns than they are about equity market losses. They are demanding higher yields as compensation for an environment of elevated and uncertain inflation.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">This has cascading implications. Rising Treasury yields mean:<\/p><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Higher borrowing costs<\/strong>\u00a0for US corporations refinancing debt<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Tighter financial conditions<\/strong>\u00a0globally, since US yields set the benchmark for dollar-denominated debt worldwide<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Pressure on emerging market sovereigns<\/strong>\u00a0that have borrowed heavily in dollars and now face both higher refinancing costs and a stronger dollar making repayment more expensive in local currency terms<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Reduced present value<\/strong>\u00a0of long-duration equity valuations \u2014 particularly relevant for growth stocks whose valuations depend on discounting future cash flows at lower rates<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-10d215a1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"10d215a1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-218e3d37\" data-id=\"218e3d37\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6a70c5fb elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"6a70c5fb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Decoding Rising Treasury Yields\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTEsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvRGVjb2RpbmctUmlzaW5nLVRyZWFzdXJ5LVlpZWxkcy1zY2FsZWQud2VicCJ9\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96291\" alt=\"Decoding Rising Treasury Yields\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Rising-Treasury-Yields-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Decoding Rising Treasury Yields<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9195a79 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9195a79\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b806bac\" data-id=\"b806bac\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4f788bb elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4f788bb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Central Bank Dilemma: Stagflation's Return<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4fb5a101 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4fb5a101\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3b4a3bd1\" data-id=\"3b4a3bd1\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-58ef1cbd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"58ef1cbd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The Iran war has handed central banks around the world an extraordinarily difficult macroeconomic puzzle. The situation mechanically resembles the 1973\u20131974 Arab oil embargo stagflation crisis, but with a far more complex and interconnected global financial system layered on top.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The dilemma is structural and inescapable: an oil shock simultaneously pushes\u00a0<strong>inflation up<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>growth down<\/strong>. Raising rates to fight inflation suppresses the investment and consumption needed to sustain growth. Cutting or holding rates to protect growth allows inflation to entrench. There is no clean exit from this trap \u2014 every move is a trade-off.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">For the\u00a0<strong>US Federal Reserve<\/strong>,\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">the energy shock pushes inflation higher while President Trump simultaneously demands lower interest rates<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 placing the Fed in a direct conflict between its inflation mandate and significant political pressure.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">The Iran war is the latest compounding threat to a global economy already rattled by Trump&#8217;s tariff agenda<\/span>, meaning the Fed must navigate a fresh oil-driven inflationary impulse while the underlying trade policy environment is itself already inflationary.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">For\u00a0<strong>China<\/strong>,\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">the loss of discounted Iranian oil imports lands on top of Trump&#8217;s tariffs and an ongoing real estate sector contraction<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 a simultaneous three-front economic challenge with no obvious policy solution. The People&#8217;s Bank of China faces the same structural dilemma in an economy with even less inflation-fighting credibility and more politically constrained options.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">For\u00a0<strong>Europe<\/strong>,\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">sustained higher energy prices risk driving inflation back up and, with it, interest rates \u2014 adding debt service pressure across an economy already near stagnation<\/span>. The European Central Bank had been approaching its first genuine rate-cutting cycle in years. That cycle is now under threat of being aborted before it generates meaningful economic relief.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">ING economists summarized the situation with precision: the Iran war is &#8220;a supply shock at the worst possible moment&#8221;<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 arriving precisely when major economies were closest to achieving soft landings after three years of aggressive monetary tightening. The timing transforms what might have been a manageable disruption into a genuine macro-level risk event.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5b2708e7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5b2708e7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-58e8a98\" data-id=\"58e8a98\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bb89779 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"bb89779\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Global Stagflation and Central Banks\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTQsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvR2xvYmFsLVN0YWdmbGF0aW9uLWFuZC1DZW50cmFsLUJhbmtzLXNjYWxlZC53ZWJwIn0%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96294\" alt=\"Global Stagflation and Central Banks\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Stagflation-and-Central-Banks-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Global Stagflation and Central Banks<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-559c14b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"559c14b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d3e501b\" data-id=\"d3e501b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8e19a0f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8e19a0f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Currency Markets: Dollar Dominance Reasserted \u2014 For Now<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-68fc513d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"68fc513d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-773689c2\" data-id=\"773689c2\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1da80e02 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1da80e02\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Dollar as the Crisis Beneficiary<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4dbcd768 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4dbcd768\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-589b98cb\" data-id=\"589b98cb\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-43d58f88 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"43d58f88\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">The US dollar has appreciated since the conflict began, with both 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising partly due to heightened inflation expectations<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 reinforcing the dollar&#8217;s reserve currency safe-haven role even as US bond prices fall. This creates an important dynamic: the dollar is rising not because US assets are seen as safe, but because in a world where every major currency faces an energy-driven inflation shock, the dollar&#8217;s structural advantages \u2014 deep liquidity, reserve currency status, energy production self-sufficiency \u2014 make it the least-bad option.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Dollar appreciation, however, creates a painful secondary effect for the global economy. Oil is priced in dollars. When the dollar rises, the real cost of oil for non-dollar economies rises even more than the headline crude price suggests. A country like India, Japan, or South Korea that was already absorbing a 40% oil price spike in dollar terms is now absorbing an even larger increase in domestic currency terms after accounting for local currency depreciation against the dollar. This secondary channel of the oil shock is often overlooked but is economically significant, particularly for energy-import-dependent emerging markets.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-26e094f1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"26e094f1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1a490c7d\" data-id=\"1a490c7d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-231d55ba elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"231d55ba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Petrodollar System Under Stress<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-435fe71f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"435fe71f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-633ce37e\" data-id=\"633ce37e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9f6124f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9f6124f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">A deeper geopolitical financial dynamic that deserves analytical attention is the subtle but real stress this conflict is placing on the\u00a0<strong>petrodollar system<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 the foundational arrangement under which Gulf oil is priced in US dollars, underpinning global dollar demand and the US&#8217;s structural ability to run persistent trade and fiscal deficits.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The Iran war is complicating this architecture in three ways simultaneously:<\/p><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>China&#8217;s informal Hormuz exemption<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Vessel-tracking data shows Chinese-flagged vessels appearing to receive informal exemptions from Iran&#8217;s de facto Hormuz blockade, effectively creating a two-tier oil market: dollar-settled Western crude and yuan-denominated Chinese crude arrangements<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran attacks prompt Red Sea rethink as box shipping exits Strait of ...\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Gulf state currency diversification signaling<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Gulf Cooperation Council members caught between Iranian retaliation and US military presence are signaling interest in settlement currency diversification as a strategic hedge, chipping incrementally at the exclusivity of dollar-denominated energy trade<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>BRICS energy framework acceleration<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 The alternative cross-border settlement infrastructure already under construction within the BRICS bloc gains renewed strategic urgency and political momentum as a hedge against dependence on a dollar system that is increasingly weaponized in geopolitical conflicts<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">None of these trends will displace the petrodollar system in the near term \u2014 it is deeply entrenched \u2014 but they represent the directional pressure that a prolonged conflict accelerates, with long-term implications for dollar reserve demand and US fiscal flexibility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-67fd4c1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"67fd4c1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f780c1c\" data-id=\"f780c1c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-583fcd7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"583fcd7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Global Petrodollar Dominance and Pressures\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTMsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvR2xvYmFsLVBldHJvZG9sbGFyLURvbWluYW5jZS1hbmQtUHJlc3N1cmVzLXNjYWxlZC53ZWJwIn0%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96293\" alt=\"Global Petrodollar Dominance and Pressures\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Global-Petrodollar-Dominance-and-Pressures-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Global Petrodollar Dominance and Pressures<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-28cf43a6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"28cf43a6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6f90eb06\" data-id=\"6f90eb06\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c02010e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1c02010e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Sector Rotation: Reading the Market's Verdict on the Economy<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7e050da elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7e050da\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9afc3dc\" data-id=\"9afc3dc\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8bf7e8c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8bf7e8c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Defensives Up, Cyclicals Down \u2014 The Recession Signal<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-197ad362 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"197ad362\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-26eaff2b\" data-id=\"26eaff2b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-39c2724c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"39c2724c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Within equity markets, a clear and economically meaningful sector rotation is underway that serves as a live barometer of investor confidence in the growth outlook.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Defensive stocks \u2014 those less sensitive to economic fluctuations, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare \u2014 have outperformed cyclical sectors since the conflict began.<\/span>\u00a0Industrials, consumer discretionary, technology, and financials are all underperforming.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">This rotation is not a random investor preference. It is a collective judgment that\u00a0<strong>economic growth is deteriorating<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 that higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, and policy uncertainty will reduce corporate earnings and consumer spending over the coming quarters. When money flows from growth stocks to staples and utilities, it is the market pricing in a lower-growth or recessionary environment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2fd71f7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2fd71f7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1203f400\" data-id=\"1203f400\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-758712d6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"758712d6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Asian Equity Markets: The Epicentre of Pain<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7e8eb8b9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7e8eb8b9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-63ca0f5f\" data-id=\"63ca0f5f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-632d5c69 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"632d5c69\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The most severe equity market reactions globally have occurred in Asia, for economically straightforward reasons: Asian economies are the most energy-import-dependent and carry the heaviest direct exposure to Gulf supply disruptions.\u00a0<span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">South Korean and Thai stock markets were forced to suspend trading after dropping more than 8%, activating circuit breakers designed to prevent panic selling.<\/span>\u00a0Japan, India, and Taiwan also saw significant declines reflecting both direct energy cost exposure and the broader risk-off sentiment.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The circuit breaker activations are particularly significant because they are relatively rare events \u2014 they signal not just a market decline but a loss of orderly price discovery. When buyers step back entirely, market structure itself comes under stress, and the resulting forced selling from margin calls and risk management systems can amplify the initial shock well beyond what economic fundamentals alone would justify.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-10c75a84 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"10c75a84\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3635ea5a\" data-id=\"3635ea5a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-62a33ae4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"62a33ae4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Decoding Global Economic Deterioration\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTAsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvRGVjb2RpbmctR2xvYmFsLUVjb25vbWljLURldGVyaW9yYXRpb24tc2NhbGVkLndlYnAifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96290\" alt=\"Decoding Global Economic Deterioration\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Decoding-Global-Economic-Deterioration-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Decoding Global Economic Deterioration<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7f1a9ed elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7f1a9ed\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3098a69\" data-id=\"3098a69\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c5af4ab elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c5af4ab\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Recession Risk: The 33% Probability and What Drives It Higher<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-69716050 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"69716050\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7a377786\" data-id=\"7a377786\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b68aaaf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7b68aaaf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Betting markets have raised the likelihood of a US recession in 2026 to 33%<\/span>\u00a0since the conflict began \u2014 a significant shift from the 15\u201318% range that prevailed before February 28. This figure is not generated arbitrarily; it reflects the compounding logic of three simultaneous economic headwinds:<\/p><div class=\"group relative my-[1em]\"><div class=\"sticky top-0 z-10 h-0\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><div class=\"w-full overflow-hidden bg-raised border-x md:max-w-[90vw] dark:shadow-lg border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest\"><table class=\"[&amp;_tr:last-child_td]:border-b-0 my-0 w-full table-auto border-separate border-spacing-0 text-sm font-sans rounded-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:first-child]:rounded-bl-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:last-child]:rounded-br-lg\" style=\"height: 81px;\" width=\"273\"><thead class=\"\"><tr><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Headwind<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Channel of Economic Damage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class=\"w-full overflow-auto scrollbar-subtle rounded-lg border md:max-w-[90vw] border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-raised\"><table class=\"[&amp;_tr:last-child_td]:border-b-0 my-0 w-full table-auto border-separate border-spacing-0 text-sm font-sans rounded-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:first-child]:rounded-bl-lg [&amp;_tr:last-child_td:last-child]:rounded-br-lg\"><thead class=\"\"><tr><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Headwind<\/th><th class=\"border-subtlest p-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b text-left align-bottom border-r last:border-r-0 font-bold bg-subtle first:border-radius-tl-lg last:border-radius-tr-lg\">Channel of Economic Damage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\"><strong>Oil shock<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Raises production costs, compresses consumer spending power, reignites CPI\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war threatens prolonged impact on energy markets as oil prices ...\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\"><strong>Tariff shock<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Already forcing supply chain restructuring and raising import costs before the conflict\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war is latest threat to a global economy rattled by Trump\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\"><strong>Financial conditions tightening<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"border-subtlest px-sm min-w-[48px] break-normal border-b border-r last:border-r-0\">Rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for corporations and households\u00a0<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"sticky z-10 h-0\"><div class=\"bg-base border-subtlest shadow-subtle pointer-coarse:opacity-100 keyboard:opacity-100 right-xs absolute bottom-xs flex rounded-md border opacity-0 transition-opacity group-hover:opacity-100 [&amp;&gt;*:not(:first-child)]:border-subtlest [&amp;&gt;*:not(:first-child)]:border-l\"><div class=\"flex transition-opacity duration-300 [&amp;_button]:hover:bg-transparent\">\u00a0<\/div><div class=\"flex transition-opacity duration-300 [&amp;_button]:hover:bg-transparent\">The three scenarios mapped by leading analysts carry very different recession probabilities:<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">\ud83d\udfe1\u00a0<strong>Rapid ceasefire (weeks):<\/strong>\u00a0Oil settles at $75\u201385\/barrel. Inflation bump is absorbed. Soft landing preserved. Recession probability stays around 20\u201325%<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">\ud83d\udfe0\u00a0<strong>Prolonged conflict (months):<\/strong>\u00a0Oil anchors at $90\u2013110\/barrel. Stagflationary pressure builds. Recession probability rises to 40\u201350%. Central banks paralyzed by the inflation-growth trade-off<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">\ud83d\udd34\u00a0<strong>Wider regional war \/ sustained Hormuz closure:<\/strong>\u00a0Oil surges to $120\u2013150\/barrel. Global recession near-certain. 1973-style energy crisis. Sovereign debt stress in energy-importing emerging markets with dollar-denominated liabilities<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Chatham House economists offer a partial counterpoint, assessing that even a long war would have limited direct consequences for global GDP if it remains contained to its current scope<\/span>\u00a0\u2014 but critically add that\u00a0<em>&#8220;some emerging economies are vulnerable to persistent high energy prices&#8221;<\/em>\u00a0in ways that could trigger localized debt crises and currency collapses that then feed back into global financial stress.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"How will the Iran war affect the global economy? | Chatham House\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2d3e0be elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2d3e0be\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-27278d7\" data-id=\"27278d7\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c937443 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"c937443\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Mapping Economic Recession Risks\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTYsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvTWFwcGluZy1FY29ub21pYy1SZWNlc3Npb24tUmlza3Mtc2NhbGVkLndlYnAifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96296\" alt=\"Mapping Economic Recession Risks\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Mapping-Economic-Recession-Risks-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Mapping Economic Recession Risks<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-547b6e9d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"547b6e9d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-122fac94\" data-id=\"122fac94\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e7f917f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5e7f917f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What Investors and Finance Professionals Should Do Now<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2f24b4e3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2f24b4e3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-38c2797f\" data-id=\"38c2797f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c64c749 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5c64c749\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Based on the current market dynamics and the analysis from Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RBC Capital Markets, and ING, the following strategic implications stand out for portfolios, treasury functions, and corporate finance teams:<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>For Portfolio Managers:<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Reassess safe-haven assumptions<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Gold and long-duration bonds are not functioning as traditional defensive hedges in this specific shock; cash and energy exposure are the actual effective hedges right now<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors make a dash for cash as Iran crisis upends markets | Reuters\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Apply nuance to energy equities<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 The crude price surge is not translating cleanly into energy stock gains; selective exposure based on operational geography, production costs, and capital discipline is warranted, not broad-brush energy sector buying<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Iran war boosts oil price, but oil major shares are stuck on the sidelines\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Shorten fixed income duration<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Rising yields in an inflationary shock environment create mark-to-market losses for long-duration bondholders; shorter-duration positioning preserves capital more effectively<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop as Investors Grapple With Iran War's Impact\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Hedge emerging market currency exposure<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Dollar appreciation combined with an oil import shock creates compounding pressure on EM currencies, particularly in South and Southeast Asia<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors Should Watch The Iran Conflict, $91 Oil And ... - Forbes\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>For Corporate Treasury and CFO Teams:<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Stress-test at $100 and $120 oil<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 The current environment warrants modeling two upside scenarios, not just a base case; energy cost assumptions embedded in 2026 operating budgets need urgent review<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"The U.S. and Israel strike Iran: what it could mean for markets\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Review dollar-denominated debt exposure<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Rising US yields and a stronger dollar increase the real cost of refinancing and servicing dollar debt for non-US entities<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors Should Watch The Iran Conflict, $91 Oil And ... - Forbes\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Implement freight and energy hedging<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Demand for container freight futures and energy price hedges is surging; the forward curve offers meaningful protection for companies with significant logistics or energy cost exposure<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Red Sea return poses disruption threat to Asia-Europe trade\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>For Long-Term Investors:<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><a class=\"reset interactable cursor-pointer decoration-1 underline-offset-1 text-super hover:underline font-semibold\" href=\"https:\/\/www.perplexity.ai\/search\/i-want-to-write-a-blog-to-disc-8aCxFa17SI6BwFuOBHXdoA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span class=\"text-box-trim-both\">Treat geopolitical risk as a permanent portfolio factor, not an episodic disruption.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0The structural changes this conflict is accelerating \u2014 supply chain diversification, energy transition investment, petrodollar erosion, alternative settlement systems \u2014 will reshape return profiles across multiple asset classes for years, not months<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-25a12cbc elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"25a12cbc\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-51357a49\" data-id=\"51357a49\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-25e2f72f elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"25e2f72f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"High-Volatility Energy Market Strategy\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTUsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvSGlnaC1Wb2xhdGlsaXR5LUVuZXJneS1NYXJrZXQtU3RyYXRlZ3ktc2NhbGVkLndlYnAifQ%3D%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96295\" alt=\"High-Volatility Energy Market Strategy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/High-Volatility-Energy-Market-Strategy-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">High-Volatility Energy Market Strategy<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4be333ef elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4be333ef\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-27de961f\" data-id=\"27de961f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-20eff14b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"20eff14b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion: The Market Verdict Is In \u2014 This Is a Structural Shift<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-14bd8840 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"14bd8840\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2b5bf725\" data-id=\"2b5bf725\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-63375a9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"63375a9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The Iran war&#8217;s financial and trading fallout is not a temporary market dislocation that will reverse when a ceasefire is signed. It has exposed three structural vulnerabilities in the global financial system that predate the conflict but have been brought into sharp, undeniable focus by it.<\/p><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The three structural conclusions that financial decision-makers cannot ignore:<\/strong><\/p><ol class=\"marker:text-quiet list-decimal\"><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The safe-haven playbook is broken for supply shock scenarios.<\/strong>\u00a0When the primary risk is inflation rather than deflation or financial system stress, the traditional crisis rotation \u2014 stocks out, bonds and gold in \u2014 does not work. The market is telling you that directly, in real time, with observable price data<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Investors make a dash for cash as Iran crisis upends markets | Reuters\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Oil market structure has changed fundamentally.<\/strong>\u00a0The extreme backwardation in crude futures, the OPEC+ capacity ceiling, and the Hormuz geography trap together mean that the historical assumption \u2014 that oil spikes are self-correcting because supply can always be increased \u2014 is no longer reliably true<\/p><\/li><li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\"><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Stagflation is the realistic base case, not a tail risk.<\/strong>\u00a0The combination of an oil supply shock, ongoing tariff-driven trade cost inflation, and rising financing costs has created the precise economic conditions for stagflation \u2014 and central banks have no clean policy tool to fight it without causing collateral damage<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"Assessing the global economic impact of the Middle East war | articles\" data-state=\"closed\">\u200b<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The businesses, funds, and policymakers that navigate this era best will be those that resist the urge to wait for normalcy to return and instead build their strategies around the world as it actually is: one where geopolitical risk is a permanent pricing factor, energy security is a first-order strategic priority, and the assumption that global supply chains will remain efficient and uninterrupted has been permanently retired.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-00d5e13 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"00d5e13\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0d8e62c\" data-id=\"0d8e62c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ce7a7a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ce7a7a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-scaled.webp\" data-elementor-open-lightbox=\"yes\" data-elementor-lightbox-title=\"Navigating the Structural Shift in Global Market\" data-e-action-hash=\"#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dlightbox%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6OTYyOTcsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuamFyc2tpbmcuY29tXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wM1wvTmF2aWdhdGluZy10aGUtU3RydWN0dXJhbC1TaGlmdC1pbi1HbG9iYWwtTWFya2V0LXNjYWxlZC53ZWJwIn0%3D\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-scaled.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-96297\" alt=\"Navigating the Structural Shift in Global Market\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-scaled.webp 2560w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-300x167.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-1024x572.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-768x429.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-1536x857.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Navigating-the-Structural-Shift-in-Global-Market-2048x1143.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Navigating the Structural Shift in Global Market<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e0c87f elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e0c87f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-78856dc\" data-id=\"78856dc\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2948db48 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2948db48\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">FAQs<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-735496a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"735496a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 *\/\n.elementor-toggle{text-align:left}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title{font-weight:700;line-height:1;margin:0;padding:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #d5d8dc;cursor:pointer;outline:none}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon{display:inline-block;width:1em}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon svg{margin-inline-start:-5px;width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon.elementor-toggle-icon-right{float:right;text-align:right}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon.elementor-toggle-icon-left{float:left;text-align:left}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon .elementor-toggle-icon-closed{display:block}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title .elementor-toggle-icon .elementor-toggle-icon-opened{display:none}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title.elementor-active{border-bottom:none}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title.elementor-active .elementor-toggle-icon-closed{display:none}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title.elementor-active .elementor-toggle-icon-opened{display:block}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-content{padding:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #d5d8dc;display:none}@media (max-width:767px){.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-title{padding:12px}.elementor-toggle .elementor-tab-content{padding:12px 10px}}.e-con-inner>.elementor-widget-toggle,.e-con>.elementor-widget-toggle{width:var(--container-widget-width);--flex-grow:var(--container-widget-flex-grow)}<\/style>\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1931\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1931\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Why are oil prices rising so fast because of the Iran war in 2026?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1931\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1931\"><p data-source-line=\"944-944\">US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered immediate Hormuz Strait disruptions, physically blocking approximately 20% of global oil supply with no detour available. Combined with OPEC+&#8217;s inability to reroute stranded Gulf barrels, the market is pricing real operational supply loss \u2014 not just geopolitical fear \u2014 pushing Brent above $91\/barrel.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3ec91453 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"3ec91453\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1051\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1051\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Why are stocks, bonds, and gold all falling at the same time?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1051\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1051\"><p data-source-line=\"954-954\">Because this is an inflation shock, not a financial crisis. Traditional safe havens like bonds and gold lose appeal when rising energy prices drive inflation higher. Investors are holding cash and crude instead \u2014 breaking the conventional crisis playbook that portfolio managers have relied on for decades.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e048ea0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"6e048ea0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1841\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1841\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">What does the Iran war mean for interest rates and the Federal Reserve?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1841\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1841\"><p data-source-line=\"966-966\">It creates a stagflationary trap. Higher oil prices push inflation up while simultaneously slowing growth \u2014 leaving the Fed unable to cut rates without worsening inflation, or raise rates without deepening the economic slowdown. Betting markets have already raised US recession probability to 33% in 2026.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6cf5455a elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"6cf5455a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1821\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1821\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Why aren't oil company stocks rallying despite the 40% crude price spike?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1821\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1821\"><p data-source-line=\"976-976\">Equity markets are discounting four risks: lower production volumes from damaged Iranian infrastructure, uncertain conflict duration, potential demand destruction above $90\/barrel, and Gulf asset safety concerns. The iShares Global Energy ETF has risen only ~2% despite crude surging 40% year-to-date.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68cda986 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"68cda986\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1751\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1751\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">How does the Iran war affect the US dollar and emerging market currencies?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1751\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1751\"><p data-source-line=\"988-988\">The dollar is appreciating as the relative safe-haven currency, making oil \u2014 priced in dollars \u2014 even more expensive for emerging economies. Nations like India, South Korea, and Turkey face a double hit: surging crude prices compounded by local currency depreciation, sharply raising real energy import costs.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c8f9a5f elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"c8f9a5f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-2101\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-2101\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Is a global recession inevitable because of the Iran conflict?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-2101\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-2101\"><p data-source-line=\"988-988\">Not inevitable, but increasingly probable. A rapid ceasefire keeps recession risk around 20\u201325%. A prolonged conflict with oil at $90\u2013110\/barrel pushes that probability to 40\u201350%. A full Hormuz closure sustained for months would make global recession near-certain, according to JP Morgan and ING economists.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Iran war hasn&#8217;t just disrupted shipping \u2014 it&#8217;s broken financial markets. Stocks, bonds, and gold are falling simultaneously while oil surges 40% to 2022 highs. The traditional crisis playbook is failing. Here&#8217;s what the numbers are really telling investors, CFOs, and traders right now.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":96306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[211],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-forum"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96261"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96310,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96261\/revisions\/96310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jarsking.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}